The 3 team parlay gives you the opportunity to substantially increase your betting dollar. I just took $5.00 and turned it into $48.30, that's nearly 10 times the amount bet.
It's not that easy, I spent a fair amount of time considering factors that fit into the criteria of each leg of the parlay and missing just one of the three legs would have blown the whole ticket. I'll explain the thought process step by step.
The advantage of being able to look at the CURRENT ODDS online is huge. Having the web right there at your fingertips gives you the advantage of as much information that is needed to make an informed decision in betting sports, and is an advantage I wouldn't want to do without. (I'll be posting a complete list of all the helpful links I use at the Seminar's conclusion.)
We'll begin with the first leg.
955 MAHOLM,PAUL vs MILTON,E
-110 OVR 10
This leg is a "Total Points" bet, the -110 is usually where bookmakers start the odds on this type of bet for both the UNDER and the OVER. The bookmakers want an equal amount of betting on both sides of whatever proposition is being offered. If a large number of bets started coming in on the over, the line would be adjusted to say, -115 or more, and the under to even money in an attempt to lure bettors to the under and restore the balance. This is the case for all betting lines and watching any line movement tells you what the public is doing. People who make their bets solely on what the line does are known in the gambling world as "chasing the money".
I like to watch the line after I make my bet, kinda like the stock market.
A tool I use exclusively in helping me to bet the "Total" is game weather conditions at The Sports Network. I like to see that the wind is blowing out and at what speed. In the case of this game, Pittsburgh at Cincinnati, the wind was blowing out to left field at 8 miles an hour gusting to 15. No guarantee by any means, but the wind blowing out can only help a deep flyball turn into a homer.
I talked about the second leg of my Parlay last week. But a deeper analysis is required.
968 BYRD,P vs LOHSE,K
+130 PLB -1.5
This leg lists the pitchers as did the previous. (Both pitchers need to start the game for action on this leg, and you can specify that a pitcher starts for a "total points" bet) Indians were favored fairly well, more than -150 and I want more than .50 cents back on my dollar. I take a look at the MLB websites pitching match-ups for the game, a look at the active roster, and decide that the Indians should beat Minnesota by two runs or more easily. I can now comfortably put them on the "points line" and get a buck .30 on my dollar by giving a point and a half ( I have never taken the points, +1.5 it's like turning the team into the favorite as far as the odds go. but there is a cause to take the +1.5 that I will get into later.)
And for the last leg of my parlay....
979 ATHLETICS vs MARINERS
+120 MLB
This is a "Money Line" bet (MLB) with Oakland as an underdog. Oakland added a couple of bats in the offseason, one of them being Frank Thomas, the "Big Hurt" and after looking at the pitching match-ups, I liked Oakland alot. Even though the opposing pitcher is a highly touted rookie phenom for the Mariners, he's still a "rookie" and the pitcher for Oakland was a proven starter that suffered from poor run support last season. He shut out the Mariners and got that run support, just like I thought he would. Getting a +120 was icing on the cake as far as I'm concerned.
I don't always nail these 3 teamers so easily and if you miss one leg, the whole ticket dies. There is a way however to back up your ticket that will allow you to recoup your money should you lose one of the legs, sometimes more money depending on the odds. It's called a "Round Robin" parlay, and I'll be discussing that type of parlay bet next week along with a more detailed look at betting the "Total" and confronting the dreaded half point.
